Summary:
Only 2% of the Swedish population can be described as climate deniers—that is, people who believe humans have no impact whatsoever on global warming. However, it is clear that people do not believe Sweden can do much unless the countries with the highest emissions take action. Generally speaking, people do not believe that the countries with the highest emissions—China, the U.S., India, and Russia—are doing nearly enough to reduce their impact. However, this does not mean we should stop being a leader; rather, that position should be used to influence other countries. Additionally, people feel that the UN and the EU need to do much more, ideally imposing economic sanctions on the biggest emitters. However, many people also recognize that, as individuals, they can reduce their consumption and thus do their part. Yet this seems at odds with the prevailing message to consume our way out of a consumption crisis; only 3% believe that electric cars will solve the climate crisis—a clear explanation for the electric car crisis we’ve witnessed since then. When people didn’t receive financial incentives to buy a new luxury car, demand dropped dramatically.
A clear majority of Swedes (85%) believe that humans can influence climate change to a large extent (completely + very + somewhat), while nearly one in seven (13%) believe that humans can do so to a small extent (very + somewhat small), and only 2% believe that humans do not influence the climate at all.
The fact that climate change is influenced by humans is therefore not particularly controversial, so talking about climate denial is not where the public stands. The extent of Sweden’s impact then becomes an interesting follow-up question.
Here, the Swedish public is split roughly down the middle: 6% say we have no influence at all, and 4% say we have complete influence. The largest group—one in three Swedes—says we have fairly little influence, and one in five says we have very little influence; in total, 55% say we have fairly little to no influence at all. At the same time, 44% believe we can influence things somewhat to completely. So what we do matters, but a reasonable interpretation of the Swedish people’s opinion is that we absolutely cannot influence it ourselves.
According to the Swedish public, the best way to influence the countries that emit the most is through economic pressure. CO2-neutral energy production comes next. Three percent believe that electric cars are an effective way to combat climate change, while more people believe that reducing personal consumption is effective. Many of these solutions are structural rather than individual. But this is also consistent with the Swedish public’s belief that climate change is caused by humans, that Sweden itself has limited influence, and that international solutions are needed. That one cannot consume one’s way out of the overconsumption that leads to the greenhouse effect.
If we look at the difference between Sweden, the individual, and international actors, an interesting picture emerges: there is almost no belief that Sweden as a country needs to take action; what matters most is that the UN and the EU act, even though individuals can do their part. This explains why climate and environmental issues have such little impact on party-political elections in Sweden, since they focus on national solutions. We know from the previous question that the individual’s influence primarily involves reduced consumption—not, for example, buying an electric car, but perhaps installing solar panels on the roof. However, my suspicion is that this is driven more by a sense of self-sufficiency within a collective system that has proven not to work, given that electricity prices have skyrocketed in recent years. The economies of scale are likely quite limited with solar panels on the roof, compared to centralized, large-scale energy production.
62% believe that China has the highest emissions, followed by the United States, India, and Russia. So 62% of the Swedish public is correct; even if the rest are wrong, their answers align with the countries that actually emit the most when you compare the order they appear in the survey with the actual statistics below
This is a major part of the problem with the climate issue on the international stage: only 2% believe that the countries mentioned as being responsible for the majority of emissions are doing enough. 78% of Swedes believe that the country they consider to be the biggest emitter is doing very little, and one in five Swedes believes that it is doing nothing at all. And when the discussion turns to how Sweden—a country responsible for 0.3% of global emissions—can do more, and when this solution isn’t about what the individual can do most—reducing their consumption—but rather consuming their way out of the crisis… And Sweden isn’t using its position as a pioneer to get other countries to move closer to Sweden’s current position as an actual pioneer. Well, then the arguments quickly fall flat, according to most Swedes.
At the same time, the Swedish people want us to be a pioneer. But that doesn’t mean we should continue to be far ahead of everyone else who, as far as we can see, isn’t doing anything at all themselves. Then we are no longer the pioneer, but rather the arrogant student at the front of the classroom who knows everything, must be the best at everything, and always raises their hand.
If you look at the EU’s climate targets, and if my calculations are correct, Germany will—after reaching its 2030 targets—emit approximately four times more per capita than Sweden does today; and if you factor in that Germany has 8 times more inhabitants, that amounts to emissions 32 times greater than Sweden’s current levels if Germany meets the EU’s 2030 climate targets. Sweden has long been far ahead, and it is important that politicians—and for that matter, the media—put this into context with where we are, and how much harder it is to go from being one of the best in the class to becoming even better, compared to those who were not nearly as far ahead when the measures began.
This is an update to a survey conducted by Novus in December 2023, with the report released in February 2024. This is an issue that will remain relevant until we stop talking about how no one cares about the climate and start working on solutions that actually make a difference.
Torbjörn Sjöström
The full survey is available here
Globeknot is a nonprofit organization whose mission is to highlight where the Swedish public stands on many important social issues, thereby helping the media and those in power to understand the citizens. But also so that citizens can see that they are not as alone in their views as it might easily appear, given the focus on the most extreme opinions in the public sphere.
Would you like to join us and show your support? We gladly accept donations, which you can make below. Or check out this page if there are other ways you’d like to help